In Egypt, like everywhere, growing energy demand is increasingly at odds with the urgent need to control carbon emissions.
Nationally, energy use is rising approximately 6.5 percent a year. To keep up, the government has promoted growth in production of natural gas and other conventional energy sources. As gas production has risen, the share of renewable energy sources in power generation has shrunk. This strategy raises concerns about the country’s finite gas reserves, and also throws Egypt off track in meeting the goals laid out in its sustainable development plan, Egypt Vision 2030. The country faces the potential double whammy of long-term energy insecurity and environmental vulnerability.
Egypt is starting to grapple with this problem, seeing the lack of diversity in its energy mix as an opportunity for improving energy security, expanding household access to electricity, and moving away from the destructive impacts of burning fossil fuels. But how can Egypt’s growing energy demand be balanced with its sustainable development goals?
New research outlines ways in which Egypt’s energy sector can diversify as it expands, moving away from natural gas in favor of renewable energy sources and efficiency improvements. This research uses the innovative TIMES energy system model to assess five different scenarios Egypt could pursue to meet its future energy needs. Two of these scenarios project the impact of targeting specific levels of power generated from renewable sources, one assesses a strategy explicitly targeting reductions in carbon emissions, and one examines the impact of constraining growth in the use of natural gas for power generation. The last is a reference scenario with no policy changes.
